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THE REALTOR REPORT

A Real Estate Newsletter

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It is with a great pleasure and honor that our new associate partner, Ms. Shereen Awwad, Certified Real Estate Broker at Re/Max Royal (Jordan) Inc. is sharing with you recent news releases regarding the continuous growth of the Montreal Real Estate market. 

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OVER HEATED MONTREAL REAL ESTATE MARKET EXPECTED TO STAY FOR ANOTHER 10-20 YEARS

"According to CMHC (Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation) economist, Francis Cortellino, the Montreal real estate market has been overheating since the end of 2018, and it looks like we’ll be elbowing our way to those canapés for a while yet.

Based on forecasted population trends, Cortellino estimates the supply of properties for sale is not likely to increase to those levels until about 2030.  For Cortellino, the real estate market is officially deemed to be overheating when the ratio of sales to new listings rises above 70 per cent. 

Montreal Old Port -yachtsIn Montreal, we crested past that threshold toward the end of 2018, and we’ve remained above it ever since. In some markets, such as the resale condo market, Cortellino has found the ratio has gone as high as 90 per cent this year.“That means for every 100 condos listed on the Centris system, 90 were removed in that quarter because they sold”. He mentions that population projections from provincial statisticians indicate the effect on the market will be limited in the short term.In his analysis, demographic changes will probably affect the housing market in a few ways:

  • Residential construction will probably slow down, as there will be fewer young families and lower net migration.

  • The aging housing stock will probably result in a surge in spending on residential renovations - More rental apartments and senior-specific residences will probably be constructed, and rental demand will continue to grow.

  • The population of seniors living in the suburbs will grow. 
  • Young families will probably rent longer as house prices rise and become less affordable.
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According to Cortellino, there is pent-up demand for single-family homes in Montreal because there hasn’t been a lot of new construction of detached homes in recent years.

“Given the situation we’re in now, if it stays the same, we’ll have more demand than supply for the next 10 to 20 years."
Source: Briana Tomkinson, Montreal Gazette, December 15, 2019

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''In the 3rd quarter of 2019, the aggregate price posted a year-over-year appreciation rate of 5.9%, while Montreal Centre experienced a 7.0% increase, once again surpassing Toronto and Vancouver city cores.'' 
Source: Royal LePage House Price Survey, October 10, 2019

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''The Conference Board of Canada (CBoC) forecasts growth of 2% in 2019, tapering off slightly to an average of 1.6% from 2020-23. Major strengths in Montreal’s real estate market include multifamily housing and industrial property.

An aging population is among the factors fuelling significant demand for condos, while e-commerce, including the growth of cold storage for grocery deliveries, is giving a boost to industrial real estate.

Supply of industrial real estate is tight, with the availability rate falling to just 3.2% in the second quarter of 2019, according to CBRE.''
Source: Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2020, PricewaterhouseCooper

To learn more about current Real Estate opportunities in Montreal, schedule a meeting with Ms. Shereen Awwad, Certified Real Estate Broker:

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